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  • Tverberg: A market collapse is on the horizon – Ecologise
    as oil prices spiked and other energy prices rose sharply See my article Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis Non elite workers found it increasingly difficult to afford expensive products such as homes cars and washing machines Housing prices dropped Debt growth slowed leading to a sharp drop in oil prices and other commodity prices It was somewhat possible to fix low oil prices through the use of Quantitative Easing QE and the growth of debt at very low interest rates after 2008 In fact these very low interest rates are what encouraged the very rapid growth in the production of US crude oil natural gas liquids and biofuels Now debt is reaching limits Both the US and China have in a sense taken their foot off the economic debt accelerator It doesn t seem to make sense to encourage more use of debt because recent very low interest rates have encouraged unwise investments In China more factories and homes have been built than the market can absorb In the US oil liquids production rose faster than it could be absorbed by the world market when prices were over 100 per barrel This led to the big price drop If it were possible to produce the additional oil for a very low price say 20 per barrel the world economy could probably absorb it Such a low selling price doesn t really work because of the high cost of production Debt is important because it can help an economy grow as long as the total amount of debt does not become unmanageable Thus for a time growing debt can offset the adverse impact of the rising cost of energy products We know that oil prices began to rise sharply in the 1970s and in fact other energy prices rose as well Looking at debt growth we find that it rose rapidly starting about the time oil prices started spiking Former Director of the Office of Management and Budget David Stockman talks about The Distastrous 40 Year Debt Supercycle which he believes is now ending In recent years we have been reaching a situation where commodity prices have been rising faster than the wages of non elite workers Jobs that are available tend to be low paid service jobs Young people find it necessary to stay in school longer They also find it necessary to delay marriage and postpone buying a car and home All of these issues contribute to the falling wages of non elite workers Some of these individuals are in fact getting zero wages because they are in school longer Individuals who retire or voluntarily leave the work force further add to the problem of wages no longer rising sufficiently to afford the output of the system The US government has recently decided to raise interest rates This further reduces the buying power of non elite workers We have a situation where the economic growth pump created through the use of a rising quantity of cheap energy products plus rising debt is disappearing While homes cars and vacation travel are available an increasing share of the population cannot afford them This tends to lead to a situation where commodity prices fall below the cost of production for a wide range of types of commodities making the production of commodities unprofitable In such a situation a person expects companies to cut back on production Many defaults may occur China has acted as a major growth pump for the world for the last 15 years since it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001 China s growth is now slowing and can be expected to slow further Its growth was financed by a huge increase in debt Paying back this debt is likely to be a problem Thus we seem to be coming to the contraction portion of the debt supercycle This is frightening because if debt is contracting asset prices such as stock prices and the price of land are likely to fall Banks are likely to fail unless they can transfer their problems to others owners of the bank or even those with bank deposits Governments will be affected as well because it will become more expensive to borrow money and because it becomes more difficult to obtain revenue through taxation Many governments may fail as well for that reason The U S Oil Storage Problem Oil prices began falling in the middle of 2014 so we might expect oil storage problems to start about that time but this is not exactly the case Supplies of US crude oil in storage didn t start rising until about the end of 2014 Once crude oil supplies started rising rapidly they increased by about 90 million barrels between December 2014 and April 2015 After April 2015 supplies dipped again suggesting that there is some seasonality to the growing crude oil supply The most dangerous time for rapidly rising amounts added to storage would seem to be between December 31 and April 30 According to the EIA maximum crude oil storage is 551 million barrels of crude oil considering all storage facilities Adding another 90 million barrels of oil similar to the run up between Dec 2014 and April 2015 would put the total over the 551 million barrel crude oil capacity Cushing Oklahoma is the largest storage area for crude oil According to the EIA maximum working storage for the facility is 73 million barrels Oil storage at Cushing since oil prices started declining is shown in Figure 7 Clearly the same kind of run up in oil storage that occurred between December and April one year ago cannot all be stored at Cushing if maximum working capacity is only 73 million barrels and the amount currently in storage is 64 million barrels Another way of storing oil is as finished products Here the run up in storage began earlier starting in mid 2014 and stabilized at about 65 million barrels per day above the prior year by

    Original URL path: http://www.ecologise.in/2016/02/11/2016-oil-limits-and-the-end-of-the-debt-supercycle/ (2016-05-02)
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  • Ecologise › Log In
    Ecologise Username Password Remember Me Register Lost your password Back to Ecologise Log in with WordPress com

    Original URL path: http://www.ecologise.in/wp-login.php (2016-05-02)
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  • Ecologise › Registration Form
    Display Name Publicly As Currently you have JavaScript disabled In order to register please make sure JavaScript and Cookies are enabled and reload the page Click here for instructions on how to enable JavaScript in your browser Registration confirmation will

    Original URL path: http://www.ecologise.in/wp-login.php?action=register (2016-05-02)
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  • Video & Report: Yogendra Yadav on the unfolding famine in Bundelkhand and the need for a farmers’ politics – Ecologise
    this was so low to begin with that this region more than any other place in the country posed this challenge That s why we went back in November to carry out a survey We did that mainly in the Uttar Pradesh part of Bundelkhand where we thought the situation was much worse We requested Jean Dreze to join and help us design a scientific survey which we carried out in November And the results were quite depressing NG What did you find in the survey YY The media highlighted the mention of fikaar or ghaas ki roti But that was not the central finding of the survey For me the worst part was that 40 of villagers in Bundelkhand said they had not consumed dal for 30 days 60 had not been able to offer milk to their children 40 rural households had been forced into distress sale of their animals About a quarter of them have had to pawn their land an equal proportion have had to pawn their ornaments all in the last one year This confirmed our suspicion that it could be a bigger tragedy unfolding than anyone was willing to acknowledge Towards the end of December there were again reports about the situation turning grimmer and I felt we must revisit this place and take a closer look NG Most people in Bundelkhand say this is the severest drought they have witnessed in a long time Do you think the state s response has been adequate YY When people say this is the biggest drought it may seem incorrect to those who go strictly by meteorological data which shows the country has see bigger droughts in the past Bundelkhand has going strictly by rainfall data seen worse droughts than this But because this comes on top of a series of rainfall deficient seasons it s the last straw on the camel s back And we are witnessing multidimensional distress there is non availability of irrigation water serious shortage of drinking and household water and an almost water emergency for animals There is fodder crisis and people are forced to sell animals to just leave them to just let them off Then there is a crisis of purchasing power as there are no employment avenues This has led to an exodus of the poor seeking employment opportunities outside Bundelkhand which in turn has led to touts and middlemen squeezing them more than ever before In some cases fall in labour demand and in labour rates due to excess labour supply has forced some of them to return to Bundelkhand to no employment in any case There is also a crisis of indebtedness Farmers are unable to pay their outstanding loans The loans they had taken for this crop has sunk And institutions are not willing to lend them money just when they need it the most so they go to private moneylenders who charge rates that an urban audience can t even imagine Interest rates of up to 60 per year are not unheard of So this is the multidimensional crisis that we are witnessing in Bundelkhand now The trouble is that drought is invisible That s because drought is a very unglamorous tragedy no footage no blood no breaking news And no touching stories involving the well to do since most touching stories are those where the reader feels he or she could have been in their place That s why drought doesn t make for touching stories The victims of drought are so distant from our social universe it s difficult to empathise with them NG Have the governments state and central responded adequately YY Of course not Their response has been indifferent to say the least That we were headed towards a drought was quite clear by the middle of August It was officially confirmed on 30 September the last day of the monsoon Yet there was no action planned by most state governments till the end of the year or at least the end of November Most states were reluctant to even declare drought Madhya Pradesh declared drought earlier but Uttar Pradesh did not till late November The water crisis was quite clear There were some attempts in UP to improve hand pumps but I don t think there was a similar attempt in MP The cattle were being let loose on a massive scale in the second week of October when I was travelling through UP No one was even aware that millions of cattle were being let loose I remember it was such a shocking sight No one knew this was happening The real need for MGNREGA had begun by the end of July or early August Actually it had begun in April when the previous crop had failed And for 7 8 months the government did not do anything It has just started in UP but still not in MP In UP too it has started selectively and partially The governments knew in April that crop compensation to the farmers was a crying need Yet UP is still to compensate the farmers for the damages they suffered in March MP has been swifter and more responsible on this count Anyone who understands our rural economy knows that farmers are in no position to pay back their loans or even electricity dues But governments are demanding it and even penalising defaulting farmers This when they are offering restructuring packages to all big corporates in the country The gross mismatch between the nature of the crisis and the nature of the state s response should make us hang our head in shame And to re think democratic theory NG Uttar Pradesh is going to polls in 2017 Do you see a point when the people you met during your visit would say that they won t re elect their leaders because they have not taken charge of the situation YY This is the tragedy of farmer politics And this is why

    Original URL path: http://www.ecologise.in/2016/01/15/the-unfolding-manmade-tragedy-in-bundelkahnd/ (2016-05-02)
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  • India’s ongoing water and power crises: The need for a paradigm shift, now – Ecologise
    to the lack of water since February The water availability scenario in that river cannot improve considerably till the onset of monsoon by the middle of June What is troubling even more is that two more coal power plants 3 800 MW capacity generators are under construction nearby with dependence on the same river basin for water supply An Ultra Mega Power Project 4 800 MW capacity also is being constructed against all techno economic norms and against popular opposition near Almatti reservoir across the same river Krishna upstream of Raichur It is a glaring fact that there can be no assurance of adequate water supply to all these coal power plants in the future in the context that the Krishna river an interstate river generally has vastly reduced water flow in Karnataka stretch between January and June A drought year will make this even worse Either most of these coal power generators will face the threat of stranded assets or the people of the region will face heightened water crises or both The issue is also similar in the case of the other major river in the region i e Tunga Bhadra on which one coal power plant 3 generators totaling 1 700 MW is depending near Bellary town Some more coal power plants are reported to be planned for the same region north of this place designed to get water from the same river basins It has been a well known fact that the North Karnataka region wherein all these existing and the proposed coal power plants are to be located has been a rain shadow area and hence facing water shortage for centuries even for drinking and agriculture In such a scenario it cannot be termed by no stretch of imagination as a sane planning to build coal power plants in Karnataka which has no known reserve of coal A coal power plant is also being considered to be built in a relatively more green area in South Karnataka near Western Ghats Hassan district which will add water scarcity and pollution to other existing problems of the area Even the only coal power plant on the west coast of Karnataka which is alleged to have heavily impacted the lush green foothills of Western Ghats also is reported to be planning to add two more generators at the same site Fresh water cannot be said to be plenty here either as is evidenced by the usage of sea water for this plant In addition to impacting the local environment this particular plant is associated with the destruction of thick forests in Western Ghats because of the transmission lines needed to evacuate the power to the load centres of Karnataka The Chief Minister of Karnataka during 2008 is on record for having said while participating in a ceremony on 8 Sept 2008 to sign a MOU with Chhattisgarh govt to set up a coal power plant in the state of Chhattisgarh that since setting up a coal power plant in Karnataka is not economical a coal power plant was being set up in Chhattisgarh The fact that Karnataka has no known reserve of coal and coal for its power plants has to be transported from a long distance and that the state is officially regraded as water deficit state must have been weighing heavily in his mind In this context it should be inconceivable that so many coal power projects in Karnataka can even be considered People have been highlighting these issues for many years but there is no let up in building more of ill conceived coal power plants Unfortunately we do not seem to have any provision in Law to hold the decision makers responsible for ill conceived power plants which can go waste at huge cost to the society This scenario of huge number of coal power plants already operating and additionally being planned in water scarce areas has been same in many other states of the Union all adding up to major crises not only for the power sector but also for the essential water needs of the people It is an indication of the poor vision on part of our policy makers that a coal based power policy is being pursued even after clear evidence of coal power plants worsening the fresh water availability in the country As per the survey report Thermal Power Plants of the Anvil Implications and Need for Rationalisation by Prayas Energy Group India if 700 000 MW of additional coal and gas power plants are to be set up as planned in 2011 fresh water requirement of a huge quantity about 4 6 billion cubic meters per year can be expected The gravity of the situation becomes clear when we also realise that this much of fresh water can meet the drinking water needs of about 7 of the population in India OR can provide irrigation to more than 900 000 hectares of land When we also consider the sever shortage of drinking water in many parts of the country including that of the fast depletion of ground water everywhere and the already low per capita availability of fresh water in the country the stark reality of the impact of coal power plants on fresh water availability become evidently clear As at the end of February 2016 the country had total installed power capacity of 288 700 MW out of which 201 400 MW was thermal power coal natural gas and diesel Such a high percentage 70 of thermal power capacity needing a lot of fresh water for satisfactory operation cannot be considered in the true interest of the communities in a scenario of drought in most years Keeping in view the high probability of Climate Change exacerbating the fresh water availability across the country and a growing population expected to reach 1 7 Billion by 2050 the present practice of over reliance on thermal power including nuclear power cannot be continued A rational analysis of the country s

    Original URL path: http://www.ecologise.in/2016/05/02/indias-ongoing-water-and-power-crises/ (2016-05-02)
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  • Ecologise Camp 4 – Ecologise
    small piece of land farm located in the penumbra of a huge urban industrial agglomeration Bangalore Hosur and participate in a demonstration or two of techniques for small scale low impact farming that anyone can adopt and adapt When will it be The camp will start on Saturday 16 th April at 1pm and run through Sunday 17 th April Participants may plan to arrive on Saturday 16 th April in the morning anytime before 12 30pm and may leave on Sunday evening If you have the leisure you are welcome to stay over and leave anytime on Monday 18 th April Those coming in from further afield may also come in on the Friday 15 th April before the camp formally begins Costs of participation The camp is open welcoming to family and children although facilities are limited and simple It is run on a pay as you can basis The facilitator or host farms receive no payments Participants are invited to contribute what they can towards the cost of organizing the workshop which works out to approximately Rs 1000 per adult for food and material that will be distributed If you can your additional contributions will help to support other peoples participation No one is refused participation due to money constraints Book Early The optimum number of participants including the hosts and resource persons is in the range of 25 adults and about 10 children So please book your places early Preference will be given to the waiting list from earlier camps then new participants and finally those who are attending again April is the holiday season and trains and buses are likely to run full Participants and resource persons can plan to arrive a day earlier and leave a day after Longer stays may also be worked out with the host farm Farm Volunteer Programme This camp as others in the Ecologise series provides you an opportunity to get introduced to our host farms If you wish to you may volunteer some of your time from a few days to a month or more to get involved and work on one of them to help out implement a project or an idea or merely for the experience The longer duration farm volunteer programmes can be structured to allow you time each day to engage in reading reflection and engaging in discussions with the host mentors besides working on the land farm or project at hand The programme does not offer any fellowships nor does it expect participants to pay for their learning or stay However you will be expected to look after your own self maintenance needs such as cooking cleaning washing medical needs etc About the Host Farm Asta Farm is located on the increasingly busy Hosur Thally road about 22 kms from Hosur and 4 kms short of Thally It is south west of Hosur and a little east of due south with respect to central Bengaluru The nearest village is Dodda Ubbanur under Thally

    Original URL path: http://www.ecologise.in/event/ecologise-camp-4/ (2016-05-02)
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  • Ecologise Camp 3 – Ecologise
    depletion species extinction environmental degradation population pressure and human conflict resulting in large scale refugee crises are some of the problems we have to contend with Some of these like climate change are reaching tipping points beyond which changes become irreversible Humans are the only species on Earth that have had such a massive direct impact on the environment in which we live by virtue of the tools and technologies that we have developed in the process of the development of our civilization Though the longevity of human life has increased due to advances in medical technologies our Quality of Life especially in cities has taken a direct hit as a result of environmental degradation The food we eat is contaminated with chemicals the air we breathe is polluted the water we drink is becoming more scarce and more polluted our lifestyles are becoming more sedentary our consumerist tendencies are increasing the consumption of natural resources and generating more waste than natural processes can handle our communities are disintegrating lifestyle diseases are more prevalent mental health issues are on the rise and injustices to politically and economically weaker communities is increasing Competition is becoming more intense starting in schools and spreading to all other spheres of life There is a feeling of despondence and helplessness among people for being dependent on the market economy There is a growing realization of the impossibility of changing anything merely by changing personal lifestyles Personal changes like using cloth bags instead of plastic shopping bags switching to CFL or LED lights from incandescent recycling waste using solar energy buying organic produce etc have now been reduced to mere tokenism A more systemic change in the way the world operates is required now Living in the midst of these man made crises it becomes our urgent responsibility to change the way we live so that we can avert or reduce the impact of these crises on our lives As a species we are in the unique position of being able to understand the source of these problems and also bring about the large scale changes that are required to save the environment that supports our life on this planet A possible way out of this is to take time to pause and think through some of fundamental aspects of our lives and the way we go about living it This would include thinking about the kind of material and social needs and aspirations we have and how we go about interacting with the environment the organisms and people around us in trying to meet our needs We have come to call this as Ecologising ourselves Ecologising is an attempt to explore and understand the reasons behind the individual alienation disgruntlement that one might experience as a part of our urban lives and also the causes for the larger Environmental and Social issues that are causing immense suffering to people and other life forms As we evolve in our understanding we hope to also respond by

    Original URL path: http://www.ecologise.in/event/3708/ (2016-05-02)
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  • Ecologise Camp 2, Dharwad, Nov 14 – Ecologise
    rain water harvesting Share this Click to share on Twitter Opens in new window Click to share on Facebook Opens in new window Click to share on Google Opens in new window 15th May 2016 15th May 2016 Thought for Food at Palampur Himachal Pradesh Workshop on eating responsibly sharing strategies and tools for doing so Share this Click to share on Twitter Opens in new window Click to share on Facebook Opens in new window Click to share on Google Opens in new window 18th May 2016 22nd May 2016 Two short courses on Development at Azim Premji University Bangalore Designed for professionals working in various domains of development Share this Click to share on Twitter Opens in new window Click to share on Facebook Opens in new window Click to share on Google Opens in new window 24th May 2016 3rd June 2016 View All Events Special Features Ecologise Camp 2 Dharwad Nov 14 Written by Ecologise Nov 5 2015 Comments Off Event Start Date 14th November 2015 Event End Date 15th November 2015 Event Venue Dharwad Date November 14 15 2015 Venue Suman Sangam A forest farm village Daddi Kamalapur Dharwad Panaji Goa highway Dharwad Karnataka India Host Dr Sanjeev Kulkarni Note Registrations are closed for this Camp If you want to register for the next one contact the organisers named below Ecologise Camp The Ecologise Camp is a programme through which those living in cities can explore living in an ecologically more sensitive and sustainable manner Specifically it is a programme involving stay and work on an organic farm for varying periods as a volunteer The programme will be preceded by a weekend orientation workshop during which the participant may decide which farm they wish to work on and for how long The duration will vary according to the needs and land cycles of each farm There will be a few break periods during which participants can go home or travel It is possible that participants may not be in a position to commit for a longer period They can still attend the orientation workshop The Camp will also introduce the volunteer to practices one can incorporate in one s life to live a more healthy and a less resource intensive lifestyle During the programme the participants on an average will be involved for 4 hours of manual work per day They will have access to books and some relevant films and videos It is expected however that on the whole they will spend less time on phones mobiles and Internet than they have been used to in their city life Also connectivity is not very good on most farms Be prepared for digital detoxification The programme does not offer fellowships nor does it expect participants to pay for their learning or stay Any specific cash expenditure during the programme will be collectively met by the principle of pay according to your ability to pay However they will be expected to look after their own self

    Original URL path: http://www.ecologise.in/event/ecologise-farm-workshop-nov-14/ (2016-05-02)
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