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  • Whatever happened to Peak Oil? – Ecologise
    discussed at great length back in the 1970s when the United States hit its own all time production peak and began skidding down the far side The issue of peak oil got swept under the rug during the Reagan era and ignored by almost everyone thereafter by the time the alarm was finally sounded again in the late 1990s it was painfully clear that most of the time that would have been needed to get ready for peak oil had already been wasted The result according to most serious peak oil researchers at that time would be a traumatic era of economic political and cultural turmoil in which a global civilization used to depending on oceans of cheap abundant crude oil got squeezed by steadily decreasing supplies at steadily soaring prices That was the peak oil standard scenario Those of my readers who know their way around the apocalyptic end of the blogosophere even if they weren t paying attention at the time will have no problem figuring out exactly what happened from that point on Inevitably the base case was turned into a launching pad for any number of lurid prophecies of imminent doom The common contemporary habit of apocalypse machismo I can imagine a cataclysm more hideous and all encompassing than you can kicked into gear and the resulting predictions interbred like hyperactive bunnies until the straightforward mathematics of peak oil were all but buried under a vast tottering heap of giddy fantasy Now of course none of those lavishly imagined catastrophes happened That s hardly surprising as identical fantasies have been retailed on every imaginable provocation for decades now swap out the modern details for their equivalents in previous eras for that matter and you can replace that word decades with centuries and still be correct What did manage to surprise a good many people is that the standard scenario didn t happen either That s not to say that everything was fine and dandy as we ll see quite a bit of the economic political and social turmoil we ve seen since 2005 or so was in fact driven by the impact of peak oil but that impact didn t follow the linear model that most peak oil writers expected it to follow To understand what happened instead it s necessary to keep two things in mind that were usually forgotten back when the peak oil scene was at white heat and still generally get forgotten today The first is that while the supply of petroleum is ultimately controlled by geology the demand for it is very powerfully influenced by market forces Until 2004 petroleum production worldwide had been rising steadily for decades as new wells were brought on line fast enough to more than offset the depletion of existing fields In that year depletion began to catch up with drilling and the price of oil began to rise steadily and two things happened as a result The first of these was a massive flow of investment money into anything that could make a profit off higher oil prices That included a great many boondoggles and quite a bit of outright fraud but it also meant that plenty of oil wells that couldn t make a profit when oil was 15 a barrel suddenly looked like paying propositions when the price rose to 55 a barrel The lag time necessary to bring oil from new fields onto the market meant that the price of oil kept rising for a while luring more investment money into the oil industry and generating a surge in future supply The problem was that the same spike in oil prices that brought all that new investment into the industry also had a potent impact on the consumption side of the equation That impact was demand destruction which can be neatly defined as the process by which those who can t afford something stop buying it Demand destruction also has a lag time when the price of oil goes up it takes a while for people to decide that higher prices are here to stay and change their lifestyles accordingly The result was a classic demonstration of one of the ways that the invisible hand of the market is a good deal less benevolent than devout economists like to pretend Take the same economic stimulus the rising price of oil and factor in lag times on its effects on both production and consumption and you get a surge in new supply landing right about the time that demand starts dropping like a rock That s what happened in 2009 when the price of oil plunged from around 140 a barrel to around 30 a barrel in a matter of months That s also what happened in 2015 when prices lurched down by comparable figures for the same reason surging supply and plunging demand hitting the oil market at the same time after a long period when everyone assumed that the sky was the limit Could the bloggers and researchers in the pre 2009 peak oil scene have predicted all this in advance Why yes and as a matter of fact a few of us did The problem was that we were very much in the minority True believers in an imminent peak oil apocalypse denounced the analysis just outlined with quite some heat to be sure but I also quickly lost count of the number of earnest intelligent well informed people who tried to convince me that I had to be wrong and the standard scenario had to be right The conventional wisdom in the peak oil scene missed something else though and that s had a huge impact on this most recent boom and bust cycle The convenient label petroleum actually covers many different kinds of hydrocarbon goo and these are found in many different kinds of rock scattered unevenly across the surface of the planet Some kinds of goo are cheap to extract and refine but many more aren t

    Original URL path: http://www.ecologise.in/2016/02/25/john-michael-greer-whatever-happened-to-peak-oil/ (2016-05-02)
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  • NEWS UPDATE #84 – Ecologise
    forest rights of communities had not been recognised did not stop the approval bodies from handing over the forests on the Parsa East Ketan Besan PEKB coal block in Chhattisgarh to Rajasthan Rajya Vidyut Utpadan Nigam Ltd RRVUNL which would carry out the mining operations through Parsa Kante Collieires Ltd a joint venture with Adani Mining Ltd Farmers livelihoods or gas pipeline The national interest debate T S Subramanian Frontline With elections to the State Assembly less than three months away a Supreme Court order has left the Tamil Nadu government wringing its hands in despair On February 2 a bench comprising Chief Justice of India T S Thakur and Justices A K Sikri and R Banumathi upheld a Madras High Court order of November 25 2013 allowing the public sector undertaking Gas Authority of India Limited GAIL to go ahead with its plan to lay a gas pipeline through Coimbatore Dharmapuri Erode Krishnagiri Namakkal Salem and Tirupur districts in western Tamil Nadu as part of its Kochi Koottanad Mangaluru Bengaluru Pipeline KKMBPL project to transport natural gas 70 of urban India s sewage is landing up in its rivers and seas Chaitanya Mallapur IndiaSpend com There are four years left for the government target of ensuring all Indians use toilets but in urban India alone no more than 30 of sewage generated by 377 million people flows through treatment plants The rest is randomly dumped in rivers seas lakes and wells polluting three fourths of the country s water bodies according to an IndiaSpend analysis of various data sources An estimated 62 000 million litres per day sewage is generated in urban areas while the treatment capacity across India is only 23 277 MLD or 37 of sewage generated according to data released by the government in December 2015 Koodankulam kaput Sam Rajappa The Statesman The brand new Russian plant was erected jointly by the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited and Atomstroyexport of Russia It was connected to the grid on 22 October 2013 and commercial operation began on 31 December 2014 During the 800 and odd days of grid connection the reactor worked for 372 days tripped 20 times and was off the grid for about 470 days The actual power produced is 3 222 million units just 18 per cent of its rated capacity The reactor was commissioned for one year s warranty period operation on 30 December 2014 but was shut down on 24 June 2015 much before the expiry of the warranty period India s 2022 renewable energy goal will require investment four times the defence budget Fact Check India India s installed capacity of renewable energy is likely to reach 147 GW by 2020 according to a report by the International Energy Agency It would need Rs 8 01 lakh crore 120 billion in capital investment and Rs 2 67 lakh crore 40 billion in equity to achieve the ambitious target according to information released by the ministry of new and renewable energy The Rs 10 68 lakh crore 160 billion needed over the next seven years until 2022 at an average of Rs 1 53 lakh crore 23 billion a year to meet the stated goal is equivalent to over four times the country s annual defence spending and over ten times the country s annual spending on health and education Global warming in overdrive We just had the hottest January ever recorded Mashable Global warming went into overdrive in January leading to astounding temperature records January was the globe s most unusually warm month ever recorded and the past three months have been the most unusually warm three month period on record as well according to new findings from NASA The data which is subject to adjustment as scientists refine their analysis shows that the combination of accelerated manmade global warming from the burning of fossil fuels such as coal and oil is combining with a record strong El Niño to bump up temperatures to never before seen levels since at least 1880 Also read Bengaluru sizzles at 10 year high of 35 5 degrees Celsius Study Ties U S to Spike in Global Methane Emissions Climate Central There was a huge global spike in one of the most potent greenhouse gases driving climate change over the last decade and the U S may be the biggest culprit according a new Harvard University study The United States alone could be responsible for between 30 percent and 60 percent of the global growth in human caused atmospheric methane emissions since 2002 because of a 30 percent spike in methane emissions across the country the study says How the great phosphorus shortage could leave us short of food Charly Faradji and Marissa de Boer The Conversation You know that greenhouse gases are changing the climate You probably know drinking water is becoming increasingly scarce and that we re living through a mass extinction But when did you last worry about phosphorus It s not as well known as the other issues but phosphorus depletion is no less significant After all we could live without cars or unusual species but if phosphorus ran out we d have to live without food Global nitrogen footprint mapped for first time Science Daily The first ever global nitrogen footprint encompassing 188 countries has found the United States China India and Brazil are responsible for 46 percent of the world s nitrogen emissions The economic modelling which grouped the nitrogen footprint into top ranking bilateral trade relationships noted a trend for increased nitrogen production and found developed nations largely responsible for emissions abroad for their own consumption Sea levels rising at fastest rate in 2 800 years due to global warming studies show The Guardian Sea levels are rising several times faster than they have in the past 2 800 years with the process accelerating because of manmade global warming according to new studies An international team of scientists examined two dozen locations across the globe to chart

    Original URL path: http://www.ecologise.in/2016/02/24/news-update-84/ (2016-05-02)
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  • Jan Breman: “76 per cent of the Indian population is living in poverty” – Ecologise
    divorcees without any support from others Basically in order to survive in poverty you need a household You cannot manage on your own because the flow of income varies with the seasons You need to pull the household together to bring in the income this is why you have child labour in India isn t it But paupers also include the labouring poor especially those whose income and employment are erratic or seasonal But Indian economists don t believe in terms like pauper That s true It was only Gandhi who wrote about paupers in an article published in Young India in 1928 when he was in south Gujarat He argued that we cannot fight colonialism if we do not fight colonialism in our own society He pointed out that paupers had been around in India for a long time I use the term pauper to evoke the conditions in Victorian England where the casual poor were driven out of the countryside to work in the mills during the industrial revolution In the same way the casual poor are being driven out of the countryside in 21st century India England amended its Poor Laws in 1834 to pauperise the rural labour and drive them to the cities What is India doing to create an exodus from the countryside Your agrarian crisis Agriculture is not able to provide livelihood for the land poor and the landless classes who have lived in the villages from time immemorial So they are forced to leave the villages But the city doesn t want them either How can you say the city doesn t want them India is building a hundred smart cities Who will live in them if not migrants Talk to policymakers talk to municipal officials of any city They will tell you they don t want the poor around that they are a burden on our modern beautified smart cities The policy of the municipality in every Indian city has been to periodically evict the poor I have studied this phenomenon closely in Ahmedabad where the poor are evicted from their homes that are close to their worksites and displaced to the outskirts of the city where no work is available They try desperately to find employment but are unable to establish themselves even in the slums They hang around in the labour chowks they become pavement dwellers because there is no shelter for them in the night When weeks pass by without any work at all they go back to the villages I use the term circular migration to describe this movement from villages to cities and back to villages in an endless cycle This is widespread in Bihar Andhra Pradesh Rajasthan Uttar Pradesh Tamil Nadu But you find it in every State Do you see the Gujarat model being successfully implemented across the entire nation That is clearly the agenda of the National Democratic Alliance government Is it possible to do it We ll have to see Maybe some concessions will be made but they will never be adequate because the Bharatiya Janata Party s ideology does not permit pro poor policies But the BJP government has an ambitious skill development programme to make the poor employable The stated emphasis may be on skill development but what investment is there on skill development The BJP has cut the public education budget What I see among the people living in the slums is not skilling but deskilling In Ahmedabad I meet workers dismissed from the mills where they used to be skilled weavers They have lost not only their job wages and the benefits of belonging to the formal economy but also their skills They are now looking for employment as casual unskilled labour Deskilling is a bigger phenomenon in India today than skilling But the NDA is not doing anything very different what from the UPA was doing is it Well I would blame not only the current government but also the former one We have to understand what s going on in India in a globalised frame India s economic policies are determined by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund They are therefore pro capital and anti labour Today the World Bank is at the end of its tether Its formula of formal capital in the informal economy failed because the poor don t own much capital Then came the whole microcredit phenomenon which was also a failure Then came cash transfers which is about bringing the poor into the market But all these recipes have failed to raise the incomes of the poor Having run out of ideas they have now started blaming the poor for being poor How can the poor be blamed for being poor If you look at the World Bank s latest World Development Report it says that the basic problem with the poor is that they don t save Really If you are poor you are desperately trying to get enough food for your family you don t have money for housing or for education or for health and on top of all this it now appears that you carry the defect of not having an accumulating mind But India is a democracy and the poor can mobilise politically can t they Yes the saving grace in India is democracy It has given some power to the poor to claim rights But can democracy continue in an economy where the gap between the haves and have nots is constantly growing Around the world with inequality growing democracy is also facing a threat What are your thoughts on the proposed labour reforms India is basically in a race to the bottom in terms of offering the lowest possible wage rates for labour and thereby attract investors This policy was already in place under the UPA it is about outdoing China as far as wage levels are concerned How is migrant labour faring in China as compared their counterparts in India I visit

    Original URL path: http://www.ecologise.in/2016/02/23/jan-breman-interview/ (2016-05-02)
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  • Marine parks in India – a case for maritime environmentalism – Ecologise
    areas for maintaining stocks of big game or draught animals for the future use and enjoyment of the royals although there was also evidence of preserving nature for its own sake during this period A distinct elitist preservationist view of nature occurred in the post independence period which persists in existing conservation ideology This law therefore does not offer much of a conservation plan beyond penalties and punishments for human intrusion into PAs and illegal use of protected species Human wildlife interactions socio ecological institutions organisations and phenomena and even simple dependence regimes are given short shrift in this law Meanwhile international attention investment and intervention on marine conservation goals is gaining in priority and India too is compelled to prove her track record in this direction In practice however the terrestrial conservation totems appear to have spilt over to the marine realm as national and international conservation organisations look towards fortress conservation models to provide solutions to marine challenges The government s weakness for resorting to the concept of marine protected areas MPA under the WLPA virtually no take zones needs an honest audit as reports of conflict over these styles of marine conservation pour in The rigidity of the exclusionist approach in terrestrial area management specifically through the narrow options offered by the terrestrially oriented WLPA stands in stark contrast to the context specific methods that could be applied such as certain local practices of small scale fisher communities These include fishing gear modifications craft regulations spatial and temporal regulations like fishing zones and seasonal bans The distinction between terrestrial and marine social ecological systems requires context specific treatments or environmentalisms THE FAILURE OF TERRESTRIAL TOTEMS Far more densely inhabited than most forests the coasts are used by numerous fishing communities concurrently Traditional community based systems of fisheries management include fishing gear restrictions closed seasons in specific areas or bans on particular forms of fishing such as night fishing or dynamite fishing In the late 1970s modern fishing methods threatened the livelihoods of these communities and coastal ecosystems as mechanised craft and gear principally bottom trawlers severely impacted fishing stocks By the early 1980s many coastal states in India had responded by introducing fisheries legislation Marine Fisheries Regulation Acts to safeguard the interests of artisanal fishers through a framework of spatial temporal fishing regulations For example the Orissa Marine Fisheries Regulation Act OMFRA 1982 prohibits mechanised fishing vessels like trawlers from fishing within five kilometres of the shore In recent years the state has also regulated the use of certain fishing gears and fishing zones that permits only low impact fishing practices in areas where sea turtle congregate to breed These laws are not designed to exclude people from their marine environments It appears that these conservation measures also recognise that humans have historically used or consumed marine species Thus fisheries management while prescribing conservation options that allow for the presence of humans and human activity also call for modifications in the range intensity and nature of fishing activity For example in Gujarat the fisheries regulations prescribe prohibitions on the catch of gravid lobsters The Tamil Nadu fisheries laws prescribe rules on species of shanks that can be harvested and their size Despite this the system of declaring MPAs and implementing these through state forest departments has dominated marine conservation in India In reality the environment ministry s response to demands for marine management has been to create a conservation mechanism identical to the terrestrial PAs as seen in the five major MPAs in the country the Gahirmatha Wildlife Santuary in Orissa the Gulf of Kutch Marine National Park in Gujarat Gulf of Mannar National Park in Tamil Nadu and the Mahatma Gandhi National Park and Rani Jhansi National Park in the Andaman group of islands In response fishing communities have objected to the complete ban on human presence in these formerly open access areas the specific contours of the conflicts depending on the intensity with which these bans have been enforced The example of Orissa is apt here For the last two decades conservationists have been trying in vain to reduce the large scale mortality 100 000 in the last ten years of olive ridley turtles in trawl fishing nets National and international efforts to introduce turtle excluder devices and keep trawlers out of the Gahirmatha Marine Sanctuary have failed in part due to the strong resistance from the trawling community The 1997 declaration of the Gahirmatha Marine Sanctuary generated considerable discontent among various fishing communities as it denied them all fishing rights within a delineated core zone Some conservationists revised their ideas to focus efforts on the protection of offshore reproductive congregations of mating turtles They also recognise that within these areas certain forms of fishing might be benign Despite the protests against the declaration of additional MPAs in Orissa the Orissa Forest Department has been reluctant to abandon its plans to declare the other two known offshore congregation areas the Devi and the Rushikulya rookeries the only other known mass nesting sites in the country as marine wildlife sanctuaries This would impinge on the rights of even the non mechanised sector rather than simply restrict harmful fishing activities Ironically since most major turtle congregations occur within a few kilometres of the shore merely enforcing the fishing regulations of the OMFRA which bans all mechanised fishing within five km of the coast would help in effectively conserving these turtle populations and also safeguard the interests of the artisanal sector In contrast to laws governing protected areas the OMFRA also has the flexibility to formulate creative rules that are area activity and time specific In addition to being unable to adequately protect marine species themselves MPAs as envisaged and operated through the WLPA fail on another count Since the focus remains on protecting the habitats within boundaries the law is simply unresponsive to development threats that originate outside the boundaries of the MPAs All the MPAs of the country have some experience of this Take the example

    Original URL path: http://www.ecologise.in/2016/02/22/marine-parks-in-india-a-case-for-maritime-environmentalism/ (2016-05-02)
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  • As automation increases in India, so does inequality – Ecologise
    production grows the share of workers wages in national income has fallen sharply Jahnavi Sen The Wire The publication of Thomas Piketty s Capital in the 21 st Century caused quite a sensation particularly by the standards of an academic book in 2014 Focussed on inequalities on a global scale particularly in advanced economies Piketty argues that the functioning of modern day capital is increasing income and wealth inequalities What s happening in India While Piketty s work calls out increasing inequalities created by capitalism in Europe and the US analysis of Indian data shows that things are not much different here Several economists have pointed out that inequality of incomes in India is much higher than what is suggested by the consumption expenditure surveys and others have noted the falling wage shares of national income and the declining proportion of GDP going to the informal sector that still accounts for more than four fifths of all workers in the country In a recent working paper Radhicka Anand an economist with the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations looks at the impact of the increasingly capital intensive production that has been characteristic of post reform India s manufacturing sector Based on Annual Survey of Industries ASI data she analyses the effect of current modes of manufacturing production on inequality Anand s study is focussed on formal sector manufacturing responsible for 65 of all manufacturing output but only 10 of all manufacturing sector employees In a country where the comparative advantage seemingly lies in the quantity of unskilled labour available it is unexpected that manufacturing should move towards capital intensive production Yet this is what has happened Efforts to explain this have not been few or far between mostly focussing on India s labour regulations The argument is that regulations have increased the cost of labour leading to a decrease in its demand This has been refuted by economists over the years who point to the fact that these regulations apply only to formal sector employees 10 of all manufacturing sector employees and also to the fact that wages and salaries account for only 4 5 ASI 2011 12 of total input costs in the sector Capital intensity of production has been increasing across industries in the last decade Anand finds in her analysis This is true not only in capital intensive industries or those industries whose capital intensity is higher than the median of the manufacturing sector but also for labour intensive industries Combine this with the fact that labour intensive industries are growing slower than capital intensive ones and you have serious doubts on the ability of the organised manufacturing sector to create jobs Prabhat Patnaik emeritus professor of economics at Jawaharlal Nehru University summarises what he sees as the basis of rising inequalities in India The withdrawal of state support from peasant agriculture under neo liberalism and the resulting agrarian crisis have driven large numbers of peasants to the urban job market However there has been

    Original URL path: http://www.ecologise.in/2016/02/21/as-automation-increases-in-india-so-does-inequality/ (2016-05-02)
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  • Graphic novel: The beginning of Delhi’s water wars – Ecologise
    to share on Facebook Opens in new window Click to share on Google Opens in new window 15th May 2016 15th May 2016 Thought for Food at Palampur Himachal Pradesh Workshop on eating responsibly sharing strategies and tools for doing so Share this Click to share on Twitter Opens in new window Click to share on Facebook Opens in new window Click to share on Google Opens in new window 18th May 2016 22nd May 2016 Two short courses on Development at Azim Premji University Bangalore Designed for professionals working in various domains of development Share this Click to share on Twitter Opens in new window Click to share on Facebook Opens in new window Click to share on Google Opens in new window 24th May 2016 3rd June 2016 View All Events Special Features Graphic novel The beginning of Delhi s water wars Written by Contributor Feb 20 2016 0 Comments Everyone deep in their hearts is waiting for the end of the world to come said Murakami If not the end then at least a good showdown s definitely expected Sarnath Banerjee s latest graphic novel envisions a similar war in the near future Fittingly the war s going to be fought over something as elemental as water An excerpt from a chilling prediction of what might be and soon Sarnath Banerjee Scroll in The constantly looming threat of a water crisis that triggers a war comes alive in Sarnath Banerjee s new graphic novel All Quiet in Vikaspuri Meanwhile there s a strange vertical journey in search of a mythical river that supposedly flows beneath the surface of the earth The story begins in the industrial township of Tambapur once flourishing but now fallen on bad days in the wake of corporate greed gone out of control Girish the plumber is forced to leave the decaying township and travel to Delhi one of the millions of migrants who have drifted to the metropolis in search of a livelihood India Today review The urban guerrilla This is a portrait of quintessential India stumbling along stretching beyond its limits trying to fit in too much too soon Saurabh Singh Everyone deep in their hearts is waiting for the end of the world to come said Murakami If not the end then at least a good showdown is definitely expected Sarnath Banerjee s latest graphic novel envisions a similar war in the near future Fittingly the war is going to be fought over something as elemental as water Not many people will be able to disagree with the authors sentiment Water wars are the next big thing In some places they have already begun and residents of Delhi are acutely aware of this deepening crisis So the author is not being hyperbolic when he suggests Sintex water tanks with top mounted machine guns and irate home owners ready to spill blood over water Sarnath s stories have always been a mere vessel to showcase what he really wants to write

    Original URL path: http://www.ecologise.in/2016/02/20/comic-all-quiet-in-vikaspuri-by-sarnath-banerjee/ (2016-05-02)
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  • Chris Martenson: Explaining the chaos in global financial markets – Ecologise
    the wrong sort Even worse all the central banks have really accomplished is to assure that when the deflation monster finally arrives it will be gigantic highly damaging and possibly uncontrollable I ll admit to being worried about this next crash crisis because I imagine it will involve record setting losses human misery due to lost jobs and dashed dreams and possibly even the prospect of wars and serious social unrest Let me be blunt this next crash will be far worse and more dramatic than any that has come before Literally the world has never seen anything like the situation we collectively find ourselves in today The so called Great Depression happened for purely monetary reasons Before during and after the Great Depression abundant resources spare capacity and willing workers existed in sufficient quantities to get things moving along smartly again once the financial system had been reset This time there s something different in the story line the absence of abundant and high net energy oil Many of you might be thinking Hey the price of oil is low which is true but only momentarily Remember that price is not the same thing as net energy which is what s left over after you expend energy to get a fossil fuel like oil out of the ground As soon as the world economy tries to grow rapidly again we ll discover that oil will quickly go through two to possibly three complete doublings in price due to supply issues And those oil price spikes will collide into that tower of outstanding debt making the economic growth required to inflate them away a lot more expensive both cost wise and energetically to come by With every passing moment the world has slightly less high net energy conventional oil and is replacing that with low net energy oil Consider how we re producing less barrels of production in the North Sea while coaxing more out of the tar sands From a volume or a price standpoint right now the casual observer would notice nothing But it takes a lot more energy to get a barrel of oil from tar sands So there s less net energy which can be used to grow the world economy after that substitution Purely from a price standpoint our model at Peak Prosperity includes the idea that there s a price of oil that s too high for the economy to sustain the ceiling and a price that s too low for the oil companies to remain financially solvent the floor That ceiling and that floor are drawing ever closer When we reach the point at which there s not enough of a gap between them to sustainably power the growth our economy currently is depending on there s nothing left but to adjust our economic hopes and dreams to more realistic and far lower levels When this happens most folks will undergo a forced simplification of their lifestyles as well as their financial portfolios which they will experience as disruptive and emotionally difficult That s not fear mongering it s just math And it s the reason why we encourage developing a resilient lifestyle today to insulate yourself from this disruption as well as be able to enter the future with optimism Too Much Debt Our diagnosis of the fatal flaw facing the global economy and its financial systems has remained unchanged since before 2008 We can sum it up with these three simple words Too much debt The chart below visualizes our predicament plainly It has always been mathematically impossible not to mention intellectually bankrupt to expect to grow one s debt at twice the rate of one s income in perpetuity All but the most blinkered can rapidly work out the fallacy captured in the above chart Sooner or later borrowing at a faster rate than income growth was going to end because it has to Again it s just math Math that our central planners seem blind to by the way all of whom embrace More debt as a solution not a problem Despite being given the opportunity to re think their strategy in the wake of the 2008 credit crisis the world s central banks instead did everything in their considerable power to create conditions for the most rapid period of credit accumulation in all of history Lesson not learned The chart s global debt number is only larger now somewhere well north of 200 trillion here in Q1 2016 But consider if you will that entire world had only managed to accumulate 87 trillion in total debt by 2000 this is just debt mind you it does not include the larger amount of unfunded liabilities Yet governments then managed to pour on an additional 57 trillion just between the end of 2007 and the half way point of 2014 just seven and half short years later Was this a good idea Or monumental stupidity We re about to find out My vote is on stupidity Banks In Trouble In just the first few weeks of 2016 the prices of many bank stocks have suddenly dropped to deeply distressed territory And the price of insurance against default on the bonds of those banks is now spiking While we don t know exactly what ails these banks and if history is any guide we probably won t find out until after this next crisis is well underway but we can tell from the outside looking in that something is very wrong In today s hyper interconnected world of global banking if one domino falls it will topple any number of others The points of connectivity are so numerous and tangled that literally no human is able to predict with certainty what will happen Which is why the action now occurring in the banking sector is beginning to smell like 2008 all over again Gundlach Says Frightening Seeing Financial Stocks Below Crisis Feb 5 2016 DoubleLine Capital s Jeffrey Gundlach said it

    Original URL path: http://www.ecologise.in/2016/02/19/chris-martenson-explaining-the-chaos-in-global-financial-markets/ (2016-05-02)
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  • Manu Sharma – Ecologise
    emissions China Climate Change coal corporate rule deforestation development ecological conflict economic growth education awareness energy extreme weather events food security fossil fuels future scenarios Gail Tverberg global economy green politics India inequality Kurt Cobb Narendra Modi government neoliberalism oil prices organic farming Paris climate talks peak oil Renewable energy resource depletion resource extraction Richard Heinberg rural India Sagar Dhara Sustainability Transition videos water crisis weather patterns Archives Archives Select Month May 2016 4 April 2016 51 March 2016 46 February 2016 31 January 2016 27 December 2015 31 November 2015 29 October 2015 19 September 2015 12 August 2015 13 July 2015 9 June 2015 11 May 2015 13 April 2015 12 March 2015 16 February 2015 17 January 2015 10 December 2014 10 November 2014 10 October 2014 10 September 2014 11 August 2014 7 July 2014 5 June 2014 7 May 2014 2 April 2014 3 March 2014 4 February 2014 1 January 2014 2 December 2013 3 November 2013 2 October 2013 8 Upcoming Events Webinar on Groundtruthing at online event Groundtruthing gathers information that connects regulatory requirements with actual impacts development has on people Resource person Kanchi Kohli 12th May 2016 12th May 2016 Rainwater Harvesting Workshop at Hyderabad Understand and combat Hyderabad s water problems through rain water harvesting 15th May 2016 15th May 2016 Thought for Food at Palampur Himachal Pradesh Workshop on eating responsibly sharing strategies and tools for doing so 18th May 2016 22nd May 2016 Two short courses on Development at Azim Premji University Bangalore Designed for professionals working in various domains of development 24th May 2016 3rd June 2016 View All Events Special Features About Manu Sharma Manu Sharma s work has spanned across climate change policy advocacy renewable energy technology investment and business sustainability Formerly a frequent public

    Original URL path: http://www.ecologise.in/author/manu-sharma/ (2016-05-02)
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